Russia likely has only a few Oreshnik missiles: British intelligence analyzed the strike on Lviv

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Russia likely has only a few Oreshnik missiles, which is a variant of the Rubezh RS-26 ballistic missile. On January 8, 2026, Russia launched this missile at Lviv, covering a distance of 1622 km.

Russia likely has only a few Oreshnik missiles: British intelligence analyzed the strike on Lviv

Russia's use of the Oreshnik missile against Ukraine was almost certainly intended as a strategic message after claims that Kyiv attacked the residence of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, however, Russia most likely has only a few Oreshnik missiles. This is stated in the report of British intelligence, reports UNN.

Details

"On the evening of January 8, 2026, Russia launched a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) codenamed "Oreshnik" for the second time from the Kapustin Yar base in the Astrakhan region of Russia towards Lviv. The missile covered a distance of approximately 1622 km to the target," the report says.

The Oreshnik strike was combined with approximately 200 unmanned aerial vehicles, at least ten variants of ballistic missiles, and at least ten Kalibr cruise missiles for striking ground targets, launched from the Black Sea, which were aimed at a number of objects across Ukraine. In Lviv, gas and electricity supply disruptions were reported, and the head of the regional military administration stated that Russian strikes were aimed at critical national infrastructure.

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Intelligence recalled that in February 2019, Russia announced its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which prohibited the development and production of medium-range ballistic missiles.

"However, the development of "Oreshnik" almost certainly took place before that. This system is most likely a variant of the Rubezh RS-26 ballistic missile, which was first tested in 2011. The use of this experimental system against Ukraine was almost certainly intended as a strategic message after inaccurate public statements by Russia that Ukraine attacked the residence of Russian President Putin in Novgorod. Russia most likely has only a few "Oreshnik" missiles. This missile is most likely much more expensive than other missiles that Russia is currently using against Ukraine," the intelligence noted.

Recall

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced an "Oreshnik" strike on Ukraine.

The SBU established the location of the fragments of the Russian ballistic missile "Oreshnik", which the enemy used to strike Lviv region on January 8-9, 2026. Among the found parts are a stabilization and guidance unit, engine parts, fragments of the orientation mechanism and nozzles.