Russia has modified its missiles to bypass Ukrainian air defense, as evidenced by months of devastating airstrikes. Ukrainian forces intercepted 37% of ballistic missiles in July, but this figure dropped to 6% in September.
Months of devastating Russian airstrikes indicate that Moscow has succeeded in modifying its missiles to bypass the Ukrainian air defense system, according to Ukrainian and Western officials. This is reported by the Financial Times, citing sources from Ukrainian and Western officials, writes UNN.
Details
According to the publication's sources, the bombing of Ukrainian drone manufacturers this summer became a vivid example of how Russia improved its ballistic missiles to more effectively penetrate the defenses of American Patriot systems.
According to them, Russia has likely modernized its mobile Iskander-M complex, which launches missiles with a range of up to 500 km, as well as Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, capable of covering up to 480 km.
Now, the missiles first follow a typical trajectory, and then sharply change course and enter a steep dive or perform maneuvers that "disorient and evade" interception by Patriot.
This is a "game changer in Russia's favor," said one former Ukrainian official. Given that Kyiv is also facing delays in the supply of interceptor missiles from the United States.
It is noted that in July, Ukrainian forces managed to intercept 37% of ballistic missiles, but in September, this figure dropped to 6%, despite fewer launches, according to open data from the Ukrainian Air Force, collected by the London-based Center for Information Resilience, the publication writes.
On Wednesday, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that all four Iskander-M missiles launched overnight evaded air defense and hit their targets.
At least four drone production facilities in and near Kyiv suffered severe damage this summer, current and former Ukrainian officials said. This includes an August 28 strike on a facility that manufactured Turkish Bayraktar drones, according to public reports from local authorities.
According to two officials familiar with the incident, two missiles during that strike were likely aimed at the offices of a company that designed and manufactured components for drones. Russian missiles bypassed Ukrainian air defense and also damaged the offices of the EU delegation and the British Council, which were located nearby.
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Patriot systems are the only ones at Kyiv's disposal capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles. Russian cruise missiles can be shot down by less sophisticated systems, but their upgrades have also made interception more difficult, officials say.
One Western official familiar with Patriot performance data noted that the first sign of Russian missile upgrades was a sharp drop in their interception rate.
According to him, a "pattern" emerged: missiles began to behave differently in the final phase of flight — changing course compared to previously recorded parameters.
This assessment is confirmed by a report compiled by the Special Inspector General for Intelligence of the US Department of Defense for the period from April 1 to June 30.
The report states that the Ukrainian Armed Forces "experienced difficulties in effectively using Patriot systems against Russian ballistic missiles due to recent tactical improvements by Moscow, including maneuvers and trajectory changes."
As an example, the June 28 strike, during which Russia launched seven ballistic missiles, of which Ukraine shot down only one, as well as the massive shelling on July 9 — the largest since the beginning of the war — when 7 out of 13 missiles were destroyed or suppressed.
Ukraine shares data on Patriot use with the Pentagon and system manufacturers. The Patriot system is manufactured by Raytheon (Virginia), and the interceptor missiles by Lockheed Martin (Maryland). This data is used to improve the systems to keep up with Russian changes, but, according to one official, updates often lag behind Moscow's rapidly changing tactics.
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Serhiy Kyslytsia, First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, told the FT: "The Russians continue to significantly modernize the technologies of Iskanders and other missiles." He emphasized the need for Ukraine's partners to block Russia's access to Western components, particularly through China.
The Ministry of Defense and the Air Force of Ukraine did not respond to requests for comment.
Analysts believe that the increased effectiveness of Russian missiles is likely due to software updates. Fabian Hoffmann, a missile researcher at the University of Oslo, noted that manufacturers often analyze interception data to improve systems — and Russia appears to be doing the same.
The Iskander-M can perform quite aggressive maneuvers in the final phase. Instead of expensive hardware changes, it is enough to update the guidance program so that the missile, before hitting the target, performs a sharp maneuver and enters a steep dive, which complicates interception by the Patriot system.
– he noted.
Specialists trained to work with Patriot systems are also becoming targets of Russian attacks.
Previously, Patriot systems protected other air defenses, such as European Iris-T systems and medium-range systems. Now, with some of them damaged or redeployed, in some cases "Patriots are forced to cover themselves" while countering Russian missiles, an informed source said.
Ukraine does not disclose information about the number of Patriot batteries and their deployment locations, but it is known that at least six have already been transferred, as well as components for three more — in recent weeks from Germany and Norway.
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