Any ceasefire in Ukraine will allow Russia to redeploy troops to the eastern border with NATO, creating a threat. ISW analysts believe that Russia is already preparing for a possible war against NATO.
Any ceasefire or prolonged pause in hostilities in Ukraine would create an opportunity for the Russian military to quickly redeploy to Russia's eastern border with NATO. This is stated in a material by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.
Details
It is noted that as a result, Russia could pose a significant threat to NATO sooner than many European officials expect.
Russia has entered the "zero phase" – the phase of creating informational and psychological conditions – of its campaign to prepare for a possible war against NATO in the future
– analysts believe.
They, in particular, point to the statement by the head of the German Foreign Intelligence Service, Martin Jäger, according to whom the frequency of Russian attacks on Europe is a "new level of confrontation."
Jäger stated that Russia is trying to test Europe's borders, undermine NATO, destabilize European democracies, divide societies, and intimidate the population. Jäger stated that Europe must prepare for further escalation of Russian forces and cannot rule out that Russia will not launch an attack on NATO by 2029
– the article says.
The authors also cite the words of the head of the Polish National Security Bureau, Sławomir Cenckiewicz, who stated that the Kremlin "is increasingly relying on 'special' local agents to carry out specific missions to minimize risks" for itself.
Recall
According to ISW, Russia could pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than 2036, as predicted by Ukrainian and Western intelligence. Constant sabotage and intelligence activities of the Russian Federation indicate the creation of informational and psychological conditions for a future war against NATO.
NATO weighs response to Putin's hybrid war: considers arming drones and changing rules of engagement for Russian aircraft – FT09.10.25, 10:23 • 3101 view
