The Kremlin is increasingly concerned about a surge in crime and social destabilization due to the return of tens of thousands of soldiers and former prisoners from the front. The situation is compared to the 1990s, when veterans of the Afghan war formed gangs.
Concern is growing in the Kremlin that the return of tens of thousands of military personnel and former prisoners from the front will provoke a surge in crime and social destabilization. The situation is already being compared to the 1990s, when veterans of the Afghan war formed gangs and mafia groups, UNN reports with reference to the Foreign Intelligence Service.
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According to intelligence, the Russian authorities admit that the demobilization of participants in the war against Ukraine poses serious internal risks. According to the Kremlin's estimates, veterans could become a catalyst for criminal and political destabilization, capable of shaking the system built around personal loyalty to Putin.
The problem is not only in the psychological traumas received at the front or the criminal past of a significant part of the military, but also in the sharp contrast between front-line payments and the level of peaceful life. The salaries and bonuses of military personnel in the combat zone are several times higher than the average income in the country. Returning to the reality of low salaries and a ruined economy, veterans can turn into a source of social explosion. The situation is complicated by the participation of tens of thousands of convicts in the war. According to the federal penitentiary service, 120 to 180 thousand prisoners were sent to the front. A significant part of them have already returned to Russian cities, where the number of serious crimes involving persons with military status is growing
– the report says.
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The intelligence service noted that since 2023 alone, at least 989 cases have been filed in military courts under articles on murder and intentional infliction of grievous bodily harm resulting in death. The number of convictions for such crimes has grown rapidly: in 2022 – 38, in 2023 – already 266, in 2024 – 346, and in just nine months of 2025, courts considered 377 new cases.
The authorities are responding by strengthening repressive mechanisms. The Federal Penitentiary Service has been given the right to more widely use special means against prisoners – from batons and tasers to dogs and water cannons. Formally – for the safety of personnel, but in fact – to maintain control over increasingly aggressive groups of former prisoners and military personnel. The return from the front of people accustomed to violence and impunity could turn into a new internal war for the Kremlin. If at the beginning these veterans were the support of the regime, then over time they could become the force that will collapse Russia from within
– the intelligence service summarized.
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