Another round of talks on Ukraine, mediated by the US, is planned in Abu Dhabi. Experts hope that the results will show the seriousness of the Kremlin's intentions, despite renewed attacks on Ukraine.
Another round of US-mediated talks on Ukraine begins today in Abu Dhabi, and the results are expected to show whether the Kremlin chief is serious, with one expert consulted noting that he is "cautiously optimistic that there is a reasonable chance to end this conflict in the spring," Politico reports, writes UNN.
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As the publication writes, "there are signs that the results of this week's face-to-face talks may finally answer a key question: Is Russian President Vladimir Putin serious?"
Ahead of the planned two-day talks, Russia resumed large-scale air attacks on Ukraine's damaged infrastructure after a brief weekend hiatus. Russia hit the country's power grid and residential buildings as temperatures dropped below -20 degrees Celsius.
"Putin must be disabused of the illusion that he can achieve anything with his bombings, terror, and aggression," said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha. "Neither the expected diplomatic efforts in Abu Dhabi this week nor his promises to the United States have prevented him from continuing terror against ordinary people in the harshest winter."
According to US President Donald Trump, these promises included refraining from attacks on Kyiv and other major cities for a whole week during a period of "extreme cold." But as soon as Trump spoke, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that the break would only last the weekend, the publication writes.
"This can hardly be called a favorable starting point for negotiations, and many Ukrainian politicians argue that Russia is simply pretending so as not to fall out of favor with the unpredictable US leader – although one who seems to show excessive patience with Putin, and much less with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy," the publication says.
Not that Ukrainians initially attached much importance to the week-long "energy ceasefire." The brutal war has taught them to expect the worst.
"Unfortunately, everything is quite predictable," wrote Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Presidential Office, on Tuesday. "This is what a Russian 'ceasefire' looks like: during a short thaw, accumulate enough missiles, and then strike at night when the temperature drops to minus 24 degrees Celsius or below, targeting civilians. Russia sees no reason to stop the war, cease genocidal practices, or engage in diplomacy. Only large-scale freezing tactics."
"It's hard to argue with his pessimism. Putin's Kremlin has a long history of using peace talks to delay, confuse, exhaust opponents, and prolong war. This is part of the tactics that the Russian leader and his grim foreign minister Sergei Lavrov have repeatedly used in Ukraine and for years in Syria," the publication writes.
Nevertheless, according to some Ukrainian and American sources familiar with the course of the negotiations, "there are signs that the current negotiations may be more promising than widely believed," the publication writes.
They say that both sides are actually more "constructive" – "which, admittedly, is an adjective often misused," the publication notes.
"Previously, these negotiations were like pulling teeth without anesthesia," said a Republican foreign policy expert who advised Kyiv. He said: "I used to want to scream when I had to see another statement about the 'constructiveness' of the discussions. But now, I think they are constructive in some sense. I notice that the Russians are taking these negotiations more seriously."
"Partly, he said, this was due to the skill of those who now lead the Ukrainian team after the departure of the influential former head of Zelenskyy's office, Andriy Yermak. Among the smartest and most capable are Yermak's successor as head of the Presidential Office and former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kyrylo Budanov; Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov; and David Arakhamia, who heads the parliamentary faction of Zelenskyy's ruling party "Servant of the People," the publication says.
"I notice that since David's involvement… there has been a noticeable improvement in relations with Russian negotiators. I think this is because they respect them – especially David – and because they see them as people who live in reality and are ready for compromises," the expert explained.
"I am cautiously optimistic that we have a reasonable chance to end this conflict in the spring," the expert said.
A former high-ranking Ukrainian official was less optimistic, but even he agreed that there had been a change in mood and tone from Russia at the negotiating table, the publication writes.
Describing the head of the Russian delegation, the head of the main directorate of the general staff of the Russian armed forces Igor Kostyukov and military intelligence officer Alexander Zorin as practical people, he said that neither of them was inclined to give long lectures about the "root causes" of the conflict – unlike Lavrov and Putin. "Russian intelligence officers were hardworking, delving into practical details," said the former official, who is still consulted by Zelenskyy's office.
He suggests that this change may be due to the Kremlin's interpretation that Europe is taking continental defense more seriously, ramping up arms production, and trying to become less dependent on the US for overall security.
"A peace agreement, an end to the war, could largely reduce the momentum of this situation – it will be much harder for European leaders to convince their voters of the sacrifices that will be needed to transition to increased defense spending," he said.
Of course, Russia's change of tone could be another attempt to deceive Trump, the publication notes. "Putin has almost nothing to show as a result of the enormous costs of the war. Accepting a negotiated settlement now, where he cannot claim a clear 'victory' for Russia and for the Russian people, will be a big problem domestically," argued retired Australian General Mick Ryan.
"Whatever the reasons, what emerges in Abu Dhabi in the coming days will likely tell us whether Putin is finally serious about the matter," the publication notes.
We need to seek dialogue, but no one is going to surrender: Zelenskyy on the next round of negotiations in Abu Dhabi03.02.26, 16:28 • 2974 views
