Since the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine, it has become clear that approaches to warfare are changing. Although military analysts have been talking about this for a long time, world leaders finally became convinced of it after Iran's strikes on neighboring countries, when relatively cheap "Shaheds" had to be shot down with Patriot missiles, costing millions of dollars. As it turned out, Ukraine can not only teach effective countermeasures against new types of attacks but also offer technological solutions. This is discussed in an article by former Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, co-authored with Dalibor Rohac, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. UNN examined what the events of recent months indicate in the context of security for both Ukraine and its partners.
The logic of warfare is changing
"The massed breakthrough that defined 20th-century land warfare is virtually impossible today. The war in Iran has already taught the United States some of these hard lessons. U.S. allies operating Patriot missile batteries spent millions of dollars per shot to destroy Iranian drones that cost tens of thousands each. Their interceptor stockpiles began to deplete long before Tehran's did. But the math itself is only a signal that the old way of doing business will no longer suffice. True adaptation will mean learning to fight differently. And Ukraine has much to teach its partners," Reznikov and Rohac write in their article.
The authors reasonably note that a country's wealth and the ability to field a larger army are ceasing to play a decisive role in military victory. And it is Ukraine that has buried this principle.
"Russia's military budget has increased several times since the start of the full-scale invasion, reaching 10% of GDP in 2025, or half of Russia's government spending. And it is likely to grow even more as Russia's public finances get a boost from high oil prices. The number of active-duty military personnel has also increased from approximately 1 million to 1.5 million.
However, the pace of the Russian advance has been steadily declining this year. In April, Russia even recorded a net loss of territory it controlled in Ukraine — partly as a result of replacing the wounded and fallen with hastily trained recruits," the authors point out in their article.
They cite data showing that since the beginning of the year, Russia has been losing about 35,000 troops every month in the war, yet its army still outnumbers Ukraine's. However, Ukrainians have been able to counter this with their capacity for innovation.
"The line of contact with Russia is about 745 miles long, and the so-called kill zone — from 15 to 30 miles deep — is controlled on both sides by unmanned ground vehicles, aerial drones, and maritime platforms. The math of such a war is relentless. A first-person view drone costing $500 can destroy a Russian tank worth many millions of dollars. A 3D-printed interceptor for $1,000 can shoot down a $35,000 'Shahed.' The winner is the one who can produce cheaper, faster, and at a larger scale. Currently, Ukraine is winning this race," the authors add.
The race for Ukrainian military innovations
Public discussion regarding the interest of friendly countries in Ukrainian defense technologies began specifically after the Iranian strikes. At the same time, it has become obvious in recent months that light and inexpensive interceptor drones capable of countering "Shaheds" are far from the only thing that interests partners. Moreover, Ukraine can offer much more to strengthen collective security.
Last week, Kyiv and Berlin signed the "Brave Germany" agreement. The agreement, among other things, provides for an investment of 300 million euros to develop Ukrainian "deep strike" capabilities. This also includes the joint production of AI-based medium-range strike drones, with an initial batch of 5,000 units intended for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
It should be added that this cooperation may not be the only area of German interest — Germany is considering replacing American Tomahawk cruise missiles with Ukrainian long-range "Flamingo" missiles, which are significantly lower in cost. It also became known that the German company Diehl Defence — known as the manufacturer of the Iris-T SLM air defense system — has entered into technological cooperation agreements with the Ukrainian Luch Design Bureau, which produces the Stugna-P ATGM, and the Flamingo manufacturer Fire Point. Although the details of this agreement are not disclosed, experts believe it could provide an impetus for the development of both cheaper air defense systems and a different range of missile weaponry.
Americans are also showing interest. A draft agreement has emerged between Ukraine and the U.S. regarding sending Ukrainian-made drones to the United States for testing on American soil. Although the agreement has not yet been signed, analysts already predict that this could be just the first step — in the document's preamble, both sides express a "shared interest in future joint production, development, or procurement of Ukrainian technologies."
"This is a striking change. Until recently, Kyiv was seen as a petitioner in Western capitals. Today, Ukraine is more sovereign, more capable, and more independent than at any time since the declaration of statehood in 1991. It has become simultaneously invincible to Moscow and indispensable to Washington, Berlin, and others," Reznikov and Rohac conclude in their article.
Partners have much to learn from Ukraine.
